I used to think the oldest examples could be found in US publications from the late 1800s.

Now I’m not so sure.

Here is a form-perfect sales presentation embedded in the opera L’Elisir d’Amore (”The Elixir of Love”) by Gaetano Donizetti which premiered in Milan, Italy way back in 1832.

Dr. Dulcamara arrives in town as an unknown, catches the villagers attention, establishes his credentials, lays out the problem, shows how his product solves the problem, and then shows what a great deal his solution is.

He creates a sense of scarcity and a time limit to buy; uses testimonials to back up his claims; and then, only after he establishes his product’s value, reveals its price in classic infomericial style which, following his well-crafted build up, appears like a great bargain.

The villagers clamor for the product and the buying frenzy begins.

Yeah, he’s a ham and the whole thing is way over the top. This is a comic opera after all, but his sales sequence is impeccable.

The music isn’t bad either!

Here’s a rough translation:

DULCAMARA: Signore! Signori! Good day dear friends! Come closer…can you all hear me?
Now then, I reckon you’ve heard of me. That’s why you’ve turned out to cheer me.
I’m doctor of posology and modern pharmacology,
of medical essentials I’ve heaps of top credentials.
I’ve cured so many terminal cases
that I’m famous all over the world, and…and…in other places.
As one who loves the human race, my philanthropic feeling
requires my travelling place to place to share my gift of healing.
I empty out the hospitals wherever I arrive

It’s Dulcamara’s magic cure that makes the patients thrive, and eases the diseases so that dying men survive. Without my skill the deathly ill would not still be alive!

For flatulence, anaemia, lock-jaw or septicaemia, this potion here will clear it up… (concocted in Bohemia)
This tonic’s a salvation for chronic constipation,

I have here testimonials in praise of what I’ve done.
Here’s one from a Bavarian, a male octogenarian, who bought my primal water… then sired a baby daughter by Charlotte, who’s a starlet, and has just turned twenty-one!
And since then he has sired another daughter and a son!
The water that he’s taken is certain to awaken the slumbering libido of old men in search of fun!

For ladies of a certain age with bottoms growing bigger…this potion, made from thyme and sage, restores your girlish figure. Two spoonfuls of the liquor, you take each night with dinner.
In just a week, or quicker, you’ll look five kilos thinner.

There’s nothing like it anywhere. My friends, take my advice… because you’re all so nice, Ill give a special price!

As I’m the sole supplier, and stocks may soon expire, the limit’s ONE per buyer…
…unless you want it twice.

I’ve pills for disabilities, from dropsy to asthmatic wheeze, for every sniffle, cough and sneeze, I’ve remedies to stem disease.

And if your veins are varicose, the symptoms I can diagnose. I’d recommend a double dose of potions I suggest.

For gentlemen whose pates are bare, I’ve something here for loss of hair…applied for just a month, I swear, your thatch will match a grizzly bear. There’s nothing like it anywhere – you really have to try it. There’s nowhere else to buy it, from Paris to Trieste. I guarantee you won’t resent the paltry, piddling sum you’ve spent on hair restoring liniment – discovering you are blessed with shocks of locks that manifest – yes, more than you before possessed! The doctor always knows what’s best!

You’re convinced my potions cure you, but you’re looking apprehensive…you’re mistaken, I assure you, if you think that they’re expensive. Fifty lire? No. Thirty? No. Twenty? Some shops would charge you plenty! But for you, a proposition – I’ll discount my own commission and I’ll give away each bottle for ten lire – as a gift.

VILLAGERS: Just ten lire – what a bargain! What a sympathetic man…and honest too!

DULCAMARA: Here’s one more…this one’s stupendous! As a cure-all, it’s tremendous. Throughout Europe I have sold this to crowned heads and big-time spenders…but because my tour has ended, and you folks have been so splendid, it is yours for fifteen lire…twenty less than I intended.
(to assistant) Gelsomina, sound the trumpet! So then nothing could be clearer..each one bought saves twenty lire…so the more you buy, then the more you are saving… buy two, and put one away.
It’s the panacea so many are craving for syndromes unknown to most doctors today.
Time has shown I know better than they!

VILLAGERS: If we profit when we buy it, then we’re fools if we don’t try it. What a wonderful preparation, this all-purpose medication. Doctor, we shall never forget you. We’re so lucky you came to town. We’re so honoured we met you…such a man of great renown.

DULCAMARA: Now, some say doctors may be greedy, but you’ll find I’m kind and fair.
If I treat a patient who’s needy, I only charge what the poor beggar can bear.

VILLAGERS: A more kind, benevolent man you won’t find anywhere.

DULCAMARA: Ah! What I sacrifice, to relieve human suffering…my chief concern is in serving mankind.

VILLAGERS: A fairer man you’ll never find!

What are they? And why are they so dangerous to your financial health –  and sanity.

I first heard the term “LSD deal” in a book by Robert Ringer. I don’t remember which one though I have a feeling it might have been “Looking Out for #1.” You can look it up.

The reason I’m writing this particular blog post is I wanted to point a friend to what Ringer had to say on the subject and much to my surprise when I googled the term nothing useful came up.

First of all, what is an LSD deal?

No, I don’t mean trade in illegal drugs.

I’m talking about deals that not only make no sense, but also waste incalculably large amounts of time, money, and energy. The folks pursuing them seem caught in the thrall of deep delusion.

It happens to everyone at least once at some point in their lives: young and old, male and female, rich and poor, intelligent and not so intelligent. As Ringer’s ingenious terminology implies, there’s something about these deals that cause folks to lose their connection with reality.

Let’s start out by looking at some obvious LSD deals.

How about paying $400 a share for an Internet startup that’s not only never made a profit, but also barely made a sale? That kind of insanity was very popular not all that long ago.

How about packaging real estate loans that were never signed, never recorded, and were made under terms that the borrowers could not possibly dream of meeting?

That’s the financial disaster the world economic system is currently trying to dig itself out from. Keep in mind less than five years ago these kind of transactions were considered absolutely “normal.”

Of course, neither the $400 per share Internet IPO or the $10 million package of loans made to people under highly dodgy circumstances made any sense at all, but the people flogging the stuff “believed” and the people buying it “believed” too.

Functionally, there is no practical difference between the people who got involved in these businesses and people tripping their brains out on a powerful hallucinogen, thus Ringer’s apt term the LSD deal.

I’m not picking on you

I mention these two examples first so that no one will think that I’m picking on them individually.

After all, both these MEGA LSD deals were endorsed by institutions like Harvard University, Columbia University, the Federal Reserve Bank, the White House, “leading economists”, and various captains of industry.

So if you find yourself caught up in an LSD deal, don’t beat yourself up, but do disengage and move on. LSD deals are quite possibly the most dangerous thing on earth when it comes to your wealth, health, and sanity.

How to know when you’re involved in an LSD deal:

1. You love talking about it, thinking about it, dreaming about it –  but not a whole lot of practical activity (i.e. money making) is going on.

2. You’re waiting for: a) the right partner, b) the right investor, and/or c) the right break before the “magic” can start happening.

3. You’ve done absolutely no market research, or your market research is months and sometimes years old, or your market research involves talking to yourself about how great your product, project or idea are.

The antidote to LSD deals

Remind yourself of how business works:

You take things off your shelf, pass them across the counter, and somebody gives you enough money in exchange so there is a clear profit in the transaction for you. You have a repeatable system in place for this to happen day in and day out.

That’s a business. Most everything else is a hallucination, an LSD deal.

It’s true that some deals and ventures take longer to bring together than others and there can be an extended waiting and ramp up period. Okay, that’s fine as long as what you’re working towards is going to look like the description of business in the paragraph above.

Another sure sign of an LSD deal is vagueness on the details.

Instead the process is: a) run around, b) talk a lot about what you’re doing, c) experience huge emotional highs (and lows), and d) at the end of the day avoid looking at your empty ledger book.

Here are the tell tale signs of being in a REAL business

Business happens when money changes hands.

Business happens when your total sales are more than your cost of goods, marketing, and operations costs.

Business happens when you can put your hands on your customer list and say “these are the people who buy from me.”

Business happens when there is a clear, definable, reachable market for what it is you have to sell.

I might be leaving a criteria or two out in this definition, but you get the idea.

It’s perfectly fine to pursue dreams and passions. The fact is a lot of what we consider humanity’s greatest achievements have come from people who pursued dreams and passions.

But in the meantime…

Keep your eye on the ball

If people aren’t giving you money you can bring to the bank –  not promises of money, or hopes of money –  in exchange for your goods and services, then you need to get that part right and get it right right now.

Not only will this “boring” approach to business make life more comfortable and pleasant for you, it will also increase the odds that you’ll reach some of your most ambitious goals and biggest visions.

Thoreau said it’s okay to build castles in the sky, just remember you also have to build them on the ground too. Good advice.

Now, at last, there is an article on the web which explaines one of the most important concepts in business: the LSD deal – What it is, why it’s so dangerous, how to recognize when you’re in one, and what to do to get out of one and onto a more productive track.

I hope you found it useful.

Optimism and positive thinking are essential tools for success. So is having your feet firmly on the ground and learning to avoid the quicksand.

Learning to analyze business ideas before you invest time, money and effort in them is one of the most useful skills you can learn as an entrepreneur and training in this skill has run through all our System programs over the last sixteen years.

It may be why so many of our students have been so successful over the years and why we have new success stories year in and year out.

Good luck!

Ken McCarthy

The System Seminar

P.S. The last public System Seminar will be held April 15 – 17th, 2011 in the New York City area.

Full details: The System Seminar

There’s even a “macho” attitude that those who sleep the least are somehow better than the rest of the population.

Good theory. Poor reality.

The reality is sleep is so important to mental and physical health that sleep deprivation is the #1 favorite tool of torturers. Not only that but many “mental disorders” (depression, irritability, anxiety) are actually nothing more than symptoms of sleep deprivation.

If you’re not sleeping well, is there anything you can do about it?

The good news is yes. The even better news is simple things have a huge impact on how well you sleep.

#1. Take sleep seriously.  Make it a priority. It’s not something you “squeeze in.” It’s essential to life, health and happiness.

#2. Watch what you eat and drink in the evening. Obvious, but easy to overlook. Instead of consuming stimulating food and drink, there are all kinds of things (like lavender and camomile tea) that will help you wind down.  If you need more, try valerian root.

#3. Start winding down early.  If you’re not heading to sleep by 11 PM, many people get a “second wind” that keeps them up until 2 to 3 AM in the morning.

#4. Light keeps you awake. People vary in sensitivity to light, but basically light tells the body: wake up. Late night TV watching can be keep certain people up.

Also, is light streaming into your room at night? Ever notice how you can sometimes sleep late in a hotel and have no idea what time it is outside? That’s because of the thick, light-blocking curtains good hotels have.

#5. The body loves habit and is happy to create a sleep habit. If your hours are all over the place, it makes it impossible for your body to set a natural sleep cycle.

Bottom line:  We’re not machines. We need sleep to function best and you’ve got to finesse yourself to sleep, especially in our “modern” world which places little value on it and does all kinds of things to interfere with it.

Bonus: Sleeping between 7 AM and 9 AM is a great thing to do if you’re schedule permits. In Chinese medicine that’s kidney time and the kidney is the root of health.

The view from the the Sky Ranch Lodge above Sedona

I never thought I’d visit Sedona.

I’d heard of it, but nothing that I heard moved me one way or the other.  There’s plenty of stunning natural beauty within an hour of my home so why travel a few thousand miles just to see some sights?

But life’s full of surprises.

Earlier this year, my doctor announced he was moving to Sedona. Bad news for me because he’d been helping with a lot.

I’d made a half-hearted pledge to visit him “someday,” but, as I said, life is full of surprises.

Twists and turns

About a month or so ago, not much more than a week after I arrived in New Orleans for my winter visit, I stepped on some unstable pavement and torqued my left ankle. “Boy, that’s going to hurt later,” I thought.

Surprise. My ankle was fine, but later my knee was not. Pretty soon it became clear that if I was going to walk around, I was going to need a cane.

“OK. I can live with that. I’ll use the cane until the knee gets better and then back to normal.”

That was the plan and the knee did get better and I was walking fine. Great.

Then about a week later, it went out again and a few days after that it stopped taking any weight at all. The cane didn’t cut it any more. To further complicate things, I had a pre-existing problem with my right arm so crutches were out.

That fast I found myself in a wheelchair less than a week before I had to get on a plane to run five full days of seminars. As if that weren’t enough, I’d also taken on a “mission impossible” type project for a very worthy and very needy non-profit in New Orleans.

The consolations of philosophy

There’s only one thing to do in a situation like this: become a philosopher. There’s not much else you can do.

First, I marveled at how easy it is to end up in a wheelchair. Two bad legs or one bad leg and one bad arm and you’re in.

Second, I consoled myself with the idea that it was a temporary condition.

But neither of these ideas helped me deal with the practical problems that kept me up the night I realized that the wheelchair thing was not going to resolve itself quickly.

Practical questions like how I was going to get from New Orleans to Chicago and then from O’Hare to the hotel reared their ugly head.

And so did the big one: How was I going to cope with needing to be wheeled around in a wheelchair for five days at the System Seminar? Would it freak people out? Would it freak me out?

Normally, I do a lot of standing and walking at my seminars. Now I would be able to do zero.

Normally, running the seminar takes a lot of of me physically. Now I was running the longest seminar I’d ever attempted and I was going into it already exhausted and stressed out.

Suddenly not being able to walk before your biggest event of the year can do that to you.

“Conditions are rarely ideal”

The night before the seminar starts I always have insomnia. In fact, I pretty much have insomnia for the whole seminar.

Usually that’s fine. I just deal with it.

But I needed every bit of rest I could get so I did what most human beings do: I worried.

I worried about it being 3:45 AM in the morning and not being able to go to sleep. I worried about how I was going to keep my energy up for five days. I worried how I was going to keep my mind sharp since normally I literally “think on my feet” and I wasn’t going to be able to be on my feet.

I worried and worried and worried.

Then I got a message. Where it came from I do not know, but it popped into my head clear as day and it made me laugh.

The message said: “Conditions are rarely ideal.”

I had to laugh because it was such a profoundly true and obvious statement.

Tell me when in anybody’s life conditions are ever perfect.

Sure, occasionally you catch a wave and everything is smooth sailing for a while, but how often does that happen? 5% of the time if you’re lucky.

The biography of every living person (and every person who’s ever lived) is full of screw ups, set backs, massive inconveniences, with the occasional disaster thrown in for good measure.

It’s called life and it happens to everybody all the time.

Conditions are rarely ideal…so what are you going to do about it?

I chuckled and went right to sleep.

New plan

Realizing that not only are conditions rarely ideal, they were certainly not ideal now, I changed my focus.

Instead of thinking about all the things stacked up against me, I focused on one thing: How I was going to do what I had to do with excellence regardless of the obstacles and, equally as important, how I was going to use every second of downtime in between presentations to maximum effect to recharge my batteries so I could hit it again – and again – and again – for five days in a row.

One thing that helped enormously: instead of engaging in idle chit chat with every person who wanted to shoot the breeze, I left the seminar room immediately when I was done and rested.

Small thing but it helped a lot.

I also enrolled a lot of people to help me, something I normally never do. I’m big on being self-sufficient. Big mistake when you’re running a complex operation.

So I assembled a team of people I knew I could count on.

Teamwork and necessity

Chef Mark Garcia, a member of my System Eagles Club, prepared me exquisite, healthy and delicious meals so I was always well fed and not dependent on the whims of the hotel kitchen and room service.

Dr. Andrew Colyer, another System student, worked on my leg and back on the breaks to not only keep them from seizing up, but also to promote their healing.

Thad Winston, a colleague of super System grad Lloyd Irvin, wheeled me through freight elevator and maze of the hotel kitchen so I was able to get to the stage without going through the lobby and seminar room in a wheelchair. Instead, I popped out a door next to the stage and made the last ten feet on crutches.

Then, for practicality’s sake, I did something I’ve never seen any seminar leader ever do. I sat on the stage for the entire five days of training. (It was a lot easier to do that than get up and down the stage stairs every time a new speaker came on.)

The result was that System 2010 was one of the most focused events we’ve ever done. I always knew exactly what was going on in the room and was able to keep things on track at all times.

At first I worried how I was going to keep my attention “on” eight to fourteen hours a day (Saturday started at 9 AM and ended and 11 PM.) Then I made an important discovery: worry consumes energy I couldn’t afford to spare. So I just dealt with things one minute a a time, taking great care not to waste energy on anything unnecessary and to make sure I had ample time to recharge my batteries on the breaks.

Adaptable plans

As the seminar wound down, bit by bit my knee got better. So much so that on the final day, I was able to put some weight on the knee and actually walk in my room a bit.

Nonetheless, it was clear that the knee was still in bad shape.

Once it was clear I was going to make it through the seminar, I allowed myself to start thinking about what I was going to do after the seminar.

Back in New Orleans, I had a gorgeous apartment waiting for me. A classic place with its own private courtyard right in the heart of the French Quarter. In a few minutes, I could walk to one of my favorite places on earth, Frenchmen Street, one of the last spots in America where you can see ten or more great bands in a one block area without paying a single cover charge.

Just one problem: I couldn’t walk to Frenchmen Street and New Orleans, God bless it, has some of the most messed up sidewalks in the world. Normally it doesn’t matter, but my knee could not afford another twist.

So, what to do?

Back home in the Hudson Valley, my home has lots of stairs and going up and down stairs is still a killer on my knee.

I was beginning to worry and then I realized: “Hey, why not just head west to Arizona, get a place near your doctor, and work with him for as long as it takes to get better?. You have the time. You have the money. Why not?”

The practical problems of getting to O’Hare and then Phoenix and then Sedona (a place I’d never been) and finding a place to stay all the while on crutches (after the seminar, I graduated to crutches) were solved and the next thing I knew, I was in a comfortable room in a peaceful spot with a view to die for.

Just down the street there’s s little restaurant that’s good enough for now.  (I can walk there without crutches as long as I don’t step on uneven ground.)

Monday, I start the next round of treatments for my knee.

Meanwhile, I’m reading, watching TV, napping, eating – just generally taking it easy, something I too rarely do.

Could messing up my knee actually turn out to be a good thing?

Maybe.

I’m going to withhold judgement until I am walking again normally, but in the meantime, I’m enjoying the peace and quiet here and thinking it might not be a bad idea to get more of this (minus the knee problems) in my life.

Conditions are rarely ideal, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get things done and even enjoy yourself in the process.

Good luck with your challenges.  I hope this story helps with them.

Left to right: Bo Dollis, Big Chief of the Wild Magnolias (lead singer of what may be the funkiest funk band of all time); rhythm and blues artist Al “Carnival Time” Johnson; singer Michelle Davis; poet Chuck Perkins; composer and arranger Wardell Quezergue (seated); Ken McCarthy

This past Sunday I was at the 80th birthday party for Wardell Quezergue “the Creole Beethoven,” a musical genius who applied his gifts behind-the-scenes to countless hits over the last fifty plus years.

A party like this is bound to bring out some interesting folks and it did: musicians, publishers, music writers, radio DJs. It was a “Who’s Who” of the New Orleans music scene.

It was a very happy occasion, but also a sobering one.

It’s fourth and long…

The three year emergency federal grant that kept the New Orleans Musicians Clinic open after the post-Katrina failure of the US Army Corps of Engineers levee system ends August 1, 2010.

What this means is that hundreds of New Orleans musicians and their families including many who are still struggling to deal with the personally catastrophic impact of the flooding – the second biggest engineering failure in human history – will be without medical care.

No success without a plan

We’ve worked up a plan for the Clinic to permanently replace this funding with funding from individual donors.

How?

As with all things Internet-related, it all boils down to THE LIST.

That being said, I was horrified to learn that this pillar of the New Orleans (and world) music community has only collected less than 400 e-mail addresses over its 12 year history.

How many people on this planet love the music that comes out of New Orleans and would be willing to lend their moral support?

Millions.

I trust you see the opportunity.

It’s just arithmetic

How big a list of supporters could be created?

The number 1 million comes to me, a big number to be sure, but in the near term – as in the next four months – I think 100,000 to 200,000 is an attainable goal.

What do we need?

List owners willing to do solo mailings on behalf of the clinic. Two to four million e-mails to reasonably well-targeted lists should be enough to generate a six figure opt-in list. Then, of course, we work the list.

Having generated many millions of dollars over the years from much, much, much smaller lists, I know what’s possible.

The challenge: The client is mired in the “we don’t like to send e-mail” mindset.

Let’s hope necessity is the mother of evolution. This one is winnable. All we need to do is suit up and get on the playing field.

UPDATE: The clients “gets” it and the game is on!

Got a list? Mail the story and we can save this Clinic.

Details: http://www.SaveTheClinic.org

- Ken McCarthy

Shot with my Flip camera and edited by my friend Matt Lipscomb with big assists from Steve Goyette, Steve O’Keefe, and Chuck Perkins.

You can’t control the outcome of anything 100%.

But what you can control 100% is to have heart. And dedication. And loyalty. And that sums up New Orleans people to a “t.”

Four and a half years ago, their city was nearly obliterated by the biggest engineering failure in American history. Scorned by the ignorant and bigoted, they were blamed for their own misfortune.

Media pundits and Congressmen alike had the gall to suggest the city be bulldozed. Government promises of help didn’t come when they were needed and all this time later, few have been fulfilled.

But New Orleans people came back and amidst frightening, gut-churning wreckage rebuilt their homes and neighborhoods and businesses one nail at a time.

You can’t always control the outcome of things, but you can control what you do.

Finish strong.

As long as you’re alive, there is always hope.

Go Saints! Go New Orleans!

And God bless all the brave people in this world who fight to the end against all odds.

One school of economic thought, the Keynesian School, think that’s a great idea.

(Before you attribute Keynesian manipulation to the “right” or the “left,” understand that they ALL do it. It was Ronald Reagan who kicked off the bubble that’s dominated the US economy since 1980.)

The other school of economic thought thought, the Austrian School, says the government should stay the heck out of manipulating the money supply.

Why?

Because it doesn’t work in the long run. The piper always has to be paid and in the meantime, the waste and excess that is spawned during bubble times is not good for society or real wealth building.

I’m in the Austrian school, all the way.

Who cares?

Does the broader economy matter to the individual entrepreneur?

Does a bear s*** in the woods?

True, during a bubble time, the state of the economy might not matter that much. In fact, a lot of loony ventures that wouldn’t work in normal times, thrive during bubbles. Ignorance can be bliss – and profitable.

But when the bubble goes the other way and things tighten up, intelligence (i.e. being interested in the wider world around you) pays obvious dividends again.

First, the little question

Let’s take care of the little question first…Is the recovery real?

To quote a sage friend of mine: “This recovery has everything going for it – except customers.”

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but there is no recovery. Bogus pyrotechnics on the stock market does not mean that the marketplace – the place where real people buy and sell – is in good shape.

Sure some businesses are flourishing. Well run, well positioned business, in “fortunate” niches are doing great, but the vast majority of of business activity – and buying – is down across the board.

…And the problem is structural: heavy debt overhang taken on when blue skies looked like they were going on for ever and ever.

If you get your business news from CNBC, you’re going to argue with me on this point. OK, I give up. Larry Kudrow and Jim Kramer are financial geniuses. You win.

The real question

The real question is will the insane excesses of recent years lead us to inflation (or hyperinflation) or deflation (price crashes.)

The average thinking person assumes that the bailouts are inflationary. It’s a reasonable position to take – unless you include one variable: scale.

Here’s what I mean…

If someone turns on a garden hose and just sprays water in the air all day and night, that would seem pretty wasteful, wouldn’t it?

But step back and look at the bigger picture.

What if that same person is spraying his garden hose in an attempt to fill up Lake Mead after Hoover Dam has collapsed? (Thanks Robert Prechter for this analogy.)

Now a completely different picture emerges.

It won’t work

Yes, it’s a shame to waste all that good water AND it’s nowhere near enough water to work.

Yes, it’s obscene that first Bush and then Obama have been shoveling untold trillions of dollars down a black hole trying to “shore up” the banking system AND as big as these bailout numbers are, they are absolutely dwarfed by the size of the problem.

The problem: Money is disappearing from the economy faster than it can be replaced. Where is it going?

Well, a $1 million house in Miami is now worth say $395,000. $695,000 in value just went up in smoke. No one else made it. It’s just gone. Poof!

The bank that made a loan based on the $1 million valuation counted on getting its money back some day and with a profit no less. The owner counted on being able to sell the property and capture the profit or borrow against it.

No more.

Multiply that by tens of thousands of properties in Florida, mix with fifty states, throw in commercial real estate, and a countless number of enterprises that are selling less, earning less and therefore worth less and you’ve got a massive exit of dollars from the economy that even reckless bailouts can’t fill.

It’s all supply and demand.

A dollar shortage means cash is more valuable, NOT less. When cash gains in value, prices go down. Inflation is the opposite. Dollars become less valuable so the prices people demand go up.

The 1980’s, 1990’s, and 2000’s were a massively inflationary period – in real estate, in stock prices, in commodities, in business valuations – now we’re coming down the other side.

Why you’ll never hear this on TV

This is not simple stuff which is why most people get it wrong.

You’ll rarely hear this scenario being discussed intelligently or in depth.

Why?

It’s not profitable for TV channels to talk about it.

Take CNBC as an example (please). It sells its airtime to one-million-and-one financial services companies, all of whom want you to turn your cash into their financial products.

Even if the smartest thing in the world right now (and for the time being it is), is to keep your cash in US dollars and in safe places, CNBC will NEVER tell you that because its advertisers would have a fit.

They’re pitching, not reporting or teaching

Speaking of “fits,” notice that CNBC’s stock picking rock star Jim Kramer tells people to BUY-BUY-BUY and SELL-SELL-SELL, but he never tells us about the third option which is to go to and stay in cash until things blow over. And you know what, he never will.

To translate this into practical advice: Don’t borrow to buy things at TODAY’S prices and only make big purchases (like real estate) if you absolutely have to – and you don’t, you can always rent.

If you continue to “play” the market – and anybody who owns stock is “playing the market” even if it’s in a conservative mutual fund – it’s best to realize you’re playing with a grenade whose pin has been pulled. Play if you must, but be ready to move fast or face an unpleasant outcome.

If you own a business, tighten up. If you can expand without taking on obligations, go for it, but the theme of the day is batten down the hatches. Get smart. If you’re going to invest, invest in improving your game.

The good news is that flexible, well run, marketing-savvy enterprises are going to be the best place to be.

Guiding lights

I’ve mentioned before that my guide to these times is Robert Prechter. (Not-so-coincidentally, you will see my name on the cover of the latest edition of his prophetic book “Conquering the Crash.”)

I’m also a big fan of Hugh Hendry, a hedge fund manager from the UK who was not fooled by the bubble and not only survived the 2008-2009 crash, but made money during it.

This is not simple stuff, but when you wrap your mind around it – and you can if you want to – you’ll be living in totally different (and better) world than people who are getting their info from CNBC and other totally unreliable sources.

It’s worth taking the time to get it right because fortunes will be made by people who get this right.

This video which I found on YouTube explains it as well as I’ve seen it explained anywhere (and after you watch the video, take advantage of the free report link at the bottom of this article.)

- Ken McCarthy

P.S. If you’re still following this, you’re probably interested in turning all this into some practical advice. Last summer I wrote and gave away something called the Independence Day Blueprint.

I was motivated to write it because I noticed that a lot of my successful students were spending like there was no tomorrow. Others were doing “smart” things with their money like piling it up in mutual funds. Ouch!

So long before the crash starting in 2005, I started beating the drum and warning about the coming inevitable credit contraction.

Some listened, some didn’t. Those that did were happy, I know at least three families that saved multiple six figures because they considered what I was saying seriously, told their broker to stuff it, and put all their money in cash (cash money market funds, treasury bills, savings accounts in highly rated banks.)

This summer I put all my ideas into the Independence Day Blueprint and planned to give it away on the 4th of July to anyone who asked for it. I did – for that one day. Then I took it down and planned to come back later and market it.

Then the reality of my schedule hit me. I’m never going to find the time to market this report for what it’s worth.

So rather than have it sit in my digital filing cabinet where it won’t do anybody any good, I’m making it available to anyone who wants it for free.

But this is it. Get it, read it, use it.

To get your free copy:

Click here for Independence Day Blueprint

This entertaining – and informative – video explains the two major theories of modern economics.

One, Keynesian, says when you run into trouble, print more money. The other position, Austrian, championed by Friedrich Hayek, says “not so fast.”

I live as if the Austrians are right and, if you ask me, I recommend that you do too.

No answers, but it’s good to know the questions.

- Ken McCarthy

P.S. Today (January 31, 2009) is the last day for the early bird tuition special for System Seminar 2010.

I’m the only person – in the world – who’s taught practical online marketing before the boom…during the dotcom boom…during the dotcom crash…during the Bubble of the 2000s…and during the present crisis. Sixteen years in all.

I always bake economic reality and sobriety into every course.

Could be why our enrollment is way up this year over last while the rest of the so-called competition is fading.

Details: The System Seminar 2010 – Chicago, IL

It was an honorable, hard-fought game. I won’t gloat in victory.

Either team could have easily won.

I’m not going to say the best team won, but it is true that the team that got the points on the scoreboard first when it mattered did – and there’s a giant lesson right there, and three related bonus ones for good measure:

=== Uber-Lesson ===

Great team, great plan, great productivity etc. don’t mean a thing if you’re not putting points on the board – in a TIMELY way

Football – and business – is not about having the best stats.

It’s about having the best business and that’s calculated in sales made, profits earned and taking money off the table (wealth, also known by the boring old word “savings.”)

Three more related lessons:

1. Protect the quarterback

The Vikings did a pretty good job of that. The Saints did a GREAT job. It made all the difference in the world.

In business, this translates to “protect the boss.” In other words, if you work for somebody, WORK for them. If you’re the boss, expect respect and loyalty.

I see a whole lot of otherwise great leaders make this mistake. They put their staff’s well being first (good), they give their staff’s credit (good), but they’re too lenient and tolerate less-than-stellar performance from employees.

This is bad for all kinds of reasons, but here’s the key one: Yes, business and football are team efforts, but neither is going anywhere without a quarterback who is protected so he can do what he (or she) can uniquely do.

Three kinds of people

There are three kinds of people in the world: 1) people who know how to be respectful and loyal, 2) people who are learning, and 3) people who don’t know, don’t care and/or are genetically incapable of things like honesty, integrity, and loyalty.

My advice as soon as you get the first whiff that someone is in the third category, out they go, preferably head first. (This includes “little” things like showing up late and not honoring simple commitments.)

As for folks in the second category (they’re learning), make a clear decision as to whether you want to invest your time and effort in mentoring them to become fully functional human beings. It will be expensive, even it you’re successful.

My take on this is? Let someone else teach them.

There are plenty of people who automatically and reflexively “protect the quarterback.” Why on earth have anyone else on your team?

2. Doing everything right “most” of the time is not good enough

Once you “get” the fundamentals and make applying them a reflex, the next thing is to be on guard against mistakes. The Vikings did everything right, except for a few bone-headed beginners’ mistakes that cost them the game.

Top performers in the high-stakes business of commodity trading will tell you: making money trading is not just about racking up huge profits. It’s also about being relentlessly vigilant and not accidentally giving away the farm through careless blunders.

Sales-oriented entrepreneurs often fail to learn this lesson.

They’re so focused on their great plays, they never look up at the scoreboard and see that they’re actually losing because they’re not paying strict attention to all the boring – but absolutely essential – parts of business that keep things on track and in the black.

3. Don’t be good, be great

If you’re going to go through the effort of tackling somebody, why not take the small extra step of trying to force a fumble?

The Saints did this and enough of their attempts succeeded that it won them the game. Extra energy expended? Just a little thought and consistency.

It’s the same in business.

Too many folks just go through the motions and do everything “right,” but fail to apply that little bit of extra tactical effort that can turn a commonplace interaction into a game changing one.

It’s the fine points relentlessly applied that can make all the difference.

Summary

1. If you’ve got a good leader, respect and protect him. If you are a good leader, expect the same from your staff.

2. Do things right and pay at least equal attention to not doing things wrong

3. Why settle for being good when a little extra thought and execution can make you great?

- Ken

P.S. As promised, to celebrate last night’s historic win, I’m giving Saints fans – and all other smart business owners – a one-time chance to join us at System 2010 at a super price.

For two days only, January 25 and 26, we’re rolling back tuition to the 2009 level.

in sixteen years, we have NEVER done anything like this before and since the Saints are never going to Super Bowl again for the first time, don’t count on it happening twice.

This truly once in a lifetime sale expires midnight January 26, 2010.

Details:

http://www.thesystemseminar.com/register.html